Slow-moving...tropical system.

Those are two phrases you don't want to hear, especially if you're in the path of that system.

It was a slow-moving tropical system that dumped 60 inches of rain on Nederland in 2017, and over 40 inches of rain in Jefferson County in 2001.

What Can Texas Expect From Our First System of the Hurricane Season?

Rain...and lots of it.

National Weather Service
National Weather Service

This is how much cumulative rainfall the National Weather Service predicts for the next 7 days. The yellow blob around Corpus Christi indicates 15-20 inches of rain. The larger brown area that includes San Antonio and much of south-central Texas anticipates that 7-10 inches, or more, could fall.

Take Notice of This Map for Two Main Reasons

  1. If this forecasted amount of rain becomes a reality, catastrophic flooding may be prepared and remain alert to break weather warnings.
  2. This forecast map will change. It could be a little, it could be a lot. The tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico could make a slight change in course, and that may result in a shift to where the heaviest of the rainfall will go.

Computer Models Offering Wide Variance on Rainfall Totals

As of this posting, every weather computer model is in agreement that the highest rainfall totals will occur along the coastline from Corpus to Brownsville, and through south-central Texas.

The GFS model shows TWO FEET of rain falling just west of Victoria, while the UM Model predicts 43 inches of rain falling just south of Corpus Christi. The links to these models were set up as of 3 p.m. on Monday, the expected rainfall totals will likely change over time.

Most other models are somewhat more conservative with widespread amounts until 5 inches.

What About East Texas?

The tropical disturbance should bring scattered downpours for the next several days. Quite a few locations could get an inch or two of rainfall, with widely isolated areas getting more.

Just keep in mind that one small change in direction could significantly change the flooding potential for the southeast Texas area. 

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